A familiar scenario: Right-wing makes noise, but little else, at convention

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By Roger Salazar

(published in the Capitol Weekly - February 23rd, 2006)

It's party time ― again. It's time for all the good, little, right-wing boys and girls of the OC, Inland Empire, and Central Valley to strut their stuff at the California Republican Party convention ― again.

Seriously, how many of these things do these guys have every year?

Still, this one ought to be interesting.

The PPIC poll out today shows Schwarzenegger has failed to gain traction with the public, despite his infrastructure bond marketing tour. In fact, Arnold's approval rating has tumbled down to 35 percent among all adults, dropping five points since January.

Arnold was hemorrhaging support from the left and the middle after the special election debacle and now is bleeding profusely from the right because of his apparent leftward lurches on the bond package, minimum wage, and because he installed former Democratic Party operatives to work on his campaign and staff. Heck, even the new California Republican Party spokesman is a former Clinton-Gore operative.

The fact that the California Republican Assembly didn't have the votes to force the Party into rescinding its endorsement of Schwarzenegger doesn't change that fact that they are one ticked-off crew. The base of the party has been mollified with promises of a policy debate over the issues, but the wingers are not pleased with the governor's flip-flopping. They have seen his rhetoric (not his actions, mind you) jump from hardcore fiscal conservative to a big borrowing spend-o-crat. The Governator is going to have to work hard to keep the wingers on his side.

So what are we to expect from the gathering of elephants in San Jose this weekend? How will Arnold shore up his support from the right-wing activists so critical to his upcoming reelection effort? Two words ― Red Meat. When Arnold drops as low as 35 percent, it means he's having trouble with his base. When he has trouble with his base, he tends to pander. Will Arnold do that again in San Jose?

Perhaps Arnold will remind the GOP faithful about some of the right-wing things he's done for them while in office: stopping immigrants from getting driver's licenses (a policy he follows strictly himself); stopping gay marriage; and fighting the ability of unions to spend money on political issues? But if he does, how will all the pandering play back in Sacramento with both Republicans and Democrats?

Schwarzenegger often talks about paddling a little on the left, then a little on the right. But what we've actually got is a governor who is constantly getting carried away by the current. This weekend, we'll see just how far right the Republican base can push the Arnold canoe.

Another force that might push that canoe is the coverage by GOP bloggers.

Remember, this is a governor who was so concerned with the way conservative bloggers reacted to his appointment of Susan Kennedy that he invited Jon Fleischman into his office to give him a one-on-one briefing on his proposals. These folks will be commenting on Schwarzenegger and the happenings of the GOP convention in real time and we will see how much of an influence that has on the policy and political discussions.

Last November's ballot fight showed us the impact a demoralized Republican base has on the outcome of an election. Even with Schwarzenegger and his conservative sidekick Tom McClintock campaigning up and down the state, the voters still rejected their message. Arnold has been trying to make noise on the left ever since then, and he's paying dearly for it with the base. If we witness yet another flip-flop in San Jose and hear Red Meat rhetoric for a red state crowd, it will confirm what we already know ­ this guy's troubles are far from over.

Roger Salazar is a principal with the Sacramento political consulting firm, AcostaSalazar LLC. He was a spokesman for former Vice President Al Gore, and served in former Gov. Gray Davis’ press office.