My Guv Likes to Party All The Time, Party All The Time…

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Just a quick note to California Political Reporters, especially those of you attending the Republican Part-ay in San Jose:

Will the Governor get a nice reception in the hall? Of course he will. You’ve all seen Schwarzenegger stagecraft before. Remember the so-called town halls packed with Chamber officials and local GOP activists last year?

But, after the bad karaoke music stops at the GOP convention and all of the college kids hired to hold signs and cheer for the "bold leader with big ideas" go back to school, -- (Hey! What ever happened to blowing up those boxes?) -- will the Governor and his fresh faced army from the Rove school of compassionate politics have achieved all their goals?

Let’s see –

1) Repair his relationship with the base. After they bought off McClintock, one assumes that should be a piece of cake, no? They desperately want to check that one off.

2) Red meat to the crowd speech. Check. (Puuhleeze…they wrote that in the car on the way from the airport.)

3) Get those Republican votes for his bond package. Che… Oh wait…

So, before you all put pen to paper and write about how the Governor has regained his footing and brought in a disciplined army that can do rapid response in their sleep, just remember that the Governor has had a full two months of positive TV coverage with his face on every newscast for weeks talking about infrastructure and his numbers dropped like a Republican lawyer at a quail hunt.

And don’t hold your breath for a list of the Republican members who have signed on to vote for the Governor’s bond package…

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A familiar scenario: Right-wing makes noise, but little else, at convention

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By Roger Salazar

(published in the Capitol Weekly - February 23rd, 2006)

It's party time ― again. It's time for all the good, little, right-wing boys and girls of the OC, Inland Empire, and Central Valley to strut their stuff at the California Republican Party convention ― again.

Seriously, how many of these things do these guys have every year?

Still, this one ought to be interesting.

The PPIC poll out today shows Schwarzenegger has failed to gain traction with the public, despite his infrastructure bond marketing tour. In fact, Arnold's approval rating has tumbled down to 35 percent among all adults, dropping five points since January.

Arnold was hemorrhaging support from the left and the middle after the special election debacle and now is bleeding profusely from the right because of his apparent leftward lurches on the bond package, minimum wage, and because he installed former Democratic Party operatives to work on his campaign and staff. Heck, even the new California Republican Party spokesman is a former Clinton-Gore operative.

The fact that the California Republican Assembly didn't have the votes to force the Party into rescinding its endorsement of Schwarzenegger doesn't change that fact that they are one ticked-off crew. The base of the party has been mollified with promises of a policy debate over the issues, but the wingers are not pleased with the governor's flip-flopping. They have seen his rhetoric (not his actions, mind you) jump from hardcore fiscal conservative to a big borrowing spend-o-crat. The Governator is going to have to work hard to keep the wingers on his side.

So what are we to expect from the gathering of elephants in San Jose this weekend? How will Arnold shore up his support from the right-wing activists so critical to his upcoming reelection effort? Two words ― Red Meat. When Arnold drops as low as 35 percent, it means he's having trouble with his base. When he has trouble with his base, he tends to pander. Will Arnold do that again in San Jose?

Perhaps Arnold will remind the GOP faithful about some of the right-wing things he's done for them while in office: stopping immigrants from getting driver's licenses (a policy he follows strictly himself); stopping gay marriage; and fighting the ability of unions to spend money on political issues? But if he does, how will all the pandering play back in Sacramento with both Republicans and Democrats?

Schwarzenegger often talks about paddling a little on the left, then a little on the right. But what we've actually got is a governor who is constantly getting carried away by the current. This weekend, we'll see just how far right the Republican base can push the Arnold canoe.

Another force that might push that canoe is the coverage by GOP bloggers.

Remember, this is a governor who was so concerned with the way conservative bloggers reacted to his appointment of Susan Kennedy that he invited Jon Fleischman into his office to give him a one-on-one briefing on his proposals. These folks will be commenting on Schwarzenegger and the happenings of the GOP convention in real time and we will see how much of an influence that has on the policy and political discussions.

Last November's ballot fight showed us the impact a demoralized Republican base has on the outcome of an election. Even with Schwarzenegger and his conservative sidekick Tom McClintock campaigning up and down the state, the voters still rejected their message. Arnold has been trying to make noise on the left ever since then, and he's paying dearly for it with the base. If we witness yet another flip-flop in San Jose and hear Red Meat rhetoric for a red state crowd, it will confirm what we already know ­ this guy's troubles are far from over.

Roger Salazar is a principal with the Sacramento political consulting firm, AcostaSalazar LLC. He was a spokesman for former Vice President Al Gore, and served in former Gov. Gray Davis’ press office.

What a Long Strange Power Trip…

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While John Howard and Patrick Dorinson well up over the sounds of “Morning in America” in the Capitol Weekly puffery surrounding Dorinson’s appointment as the head GOP flack and his clichéd “I didn’t leave the party, the party left me” storyline, there’s another side of Pat’s “personal odyssey” that goes unmentioned – his work for energy profiteer Mirant.

After working for the California Independent Systems Operator through 2001, Dorinson went to work as chief defender in the western states for energy giant Mirant, the same company that was sued by California’s Attorney General for fattening “their wallets at the expense of the California ratepayer.” http://www.ag.ca.gov/newsalerts/2004/04-086.htm

Dorinson’s company and the others sued by the AG didn’t “attempt to refute the allegation that they sometimes sold power they had bid into the state's reserve market. But they said they were merely playing by market rules designed by the Legislature and other state regulators who designed electricity deregulation… ‘Mirant has always operated under the rules California set up,’ said Patrick Dorinson, a spokesman for the Atlanta company.” (San Francisco Chronicle, March 12, 2002)

Not so fast. Just last year the Attorney General announced a $749.7 million proposed settlement with Mirant Corporation to resolve allegations of price gouging and other unlawful conduct during the California Energy Crisis of 2000-01. http://ag.ca.gov/newsalerts/2005/05-005.htm

So while he may try to spin this to the GOP base as a “coming home” story, the story we see is just another corporate shill working for the Governor.

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